📒 The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : Random House
ISBN_10 : 1588365832
Copyright Year : 2007-04-17
File Format : All Formats
File Download : 480
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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

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📒 The Black Swan by Mercedes Lackey

Genre : Fiction
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN_10 : 9781101119068
Copyright Year : 2000-05-01
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File Download : 416
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After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.

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📒 Odile by Amanda V. Shane

Genre : Fiction
Publisher : Enchanted Lands Romance
ISBN_10 : 179035725X
Copyright Year : 2019-01-25
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File Download : 266
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Pale, cold mistress of the serpent's lair, blood red lips and coal black hair... Enter the world of the Black Swan, a dark and seductive tale where things are not always as they seem. Odile is the reviled villainess of Aarroughac, a castle inhabited by the evil wizard, Count Rothebart. After a sinister magic sweeps through the land and results in death, Odile is accused of the crime. Von Rothebart vanishes, leaving her to face the wrath of an entire kingdom alone until a mysterious stranger with powers of his own comes along. With vengeance as his guide, Lord Azarus di Caspari hunts an ancient curse. When he crosses paths with the Black Swan of legend, he immediately makes up his mind to use the temptress's magic for his own devices. But when Azarus learns that the story of the sorceress might not be true, disappointment gives way to desire. Spells are cast and secrets are revealed, but can love exist in the shadow of two dark hearts such as theirs?Are the tales of the Black Swan true? Is she a murderess and an evil sorceress to be feared or is she the only thing standing between true evil and the fall of a kingdom? Only time will tell as the magical story of the Black Swan unfolds. Odile, Legend of the Black Swan is a fantasy, fairy tale romance inspired by the legendary ballet, Swan Lake. An Enchanted Lands Romance.18 and up. This story involves some intimate scenes and adult situations. If such material offends you, please don't buy this book.

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📒 Incerto 4 Book Bundle by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : Random House
ISBN_10 : 9780812997699
Copyright Year : 2016-01-26
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File Download : 1568
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

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📒 Stalking The Black Swan by Kenneth A. Posner

Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN_10 : 0231521677
Copyright Year : 2010-03-31
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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

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📒 The Black Swan Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : Random House
ISBN_10 : 0679604189
Copyright Year : 2010-05-11
File Format : All Formats
File Download : 480
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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review

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Genre : History
Publisher : Seaforth Publishing
ISBN_10 : 9781526765970
Copyright Year : 2019-11-30
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File Download : 128
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The technical details of British warships were recorded in a set of plans produced by the builders on completion of every ship. Known as the ‘as fitted’ general arrangements, these drawings represented the exact appearance and fitting of the ship as it entered service. Intended to provide a permanent reference for the Admiralty and the dockyards, these highly detailed plans were drawn with exquisite skill in multi-coloured inks and washes that represent the acme of the draughtsman’s art. Today they form part of the incomparable collection of the National Maritime Museum at Greenwich, which is using the latest scanning technology to make digital copies of the highest quality. This book is one of a series based entirely on these draughts which depict famous warships in an unprecedented degree of detail – complete sets in full colour, with many close-ups and enlargements that make every aspect clear and comprehensible. Extensive captions point the reader to important features to be found in the plans, and an introduction covers the background to the design. This volume is devoted to the sloops of the _Black Swan_ class and its improved derivatives, widely regarded as the ‘Rolls-Royce’ of Second World War convoy escorts. Heavily armed and superbly equipped for their role, they were among the most effective anti-submarine ships of the battle in the Atlantic. The design was gradually improved and this book uses plans of four selected ships to chart that development. These comprise: _Black Swan_ as built; _Flamingo_ as modified later; _Starling_, the single most successful U-boat hunter of the war, as in 1943; and _Amethyst_, as refitted after her clash with Chinese communists on the Yangtze in 1949.

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📒 Dysphoria by Mark Goodwin

Genre :
Publisher :
ISBN_10 : 1072671034
Copyright Year : 2019-07-15
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Available August 10th! America's financial doomsday. A wayward son. The epic struggle to survive. Country music icon Shane Black is this year's headliner for the New Year's Eve bash in Times Square, but when violent riots break out, he'll need more than a six string to escape New York City. After decades of abuse as the world's reserve currency, the US Dollar's day of reckoning is at hand. Without a functioning monetary system to purchase basic goods, society rapidly descends into abject chaos. Protests, looting, and bloodletting take the place of civility in a country which becomes thoroughly unhinged. Thrust into an apocalyptic gauntlet of terror, Shane must resort to savage brutality to get out of Manhattan alive. Could the impending currency collapse be the broken road that leads him home? Shane left everyone and everything he knew to chase the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. He found fortune and fame but can't forgive himself for abandoning his hometown sweetheart, Julianna. She moved on years ago, but when Julianna shares a secret with Shane, it changes his life forever. The coming economic meltdown will bring America to her knees. The impending pension crisis proves to be the catalyst which pushes the US economy to the brink. With no other tools at their disposal, the Federal Government is forced to print an unprecedented amount of new currency. Faith in the dollar erodes and the dominos start falling. Don't miss this chilling glimpse into America's future. Read Black Swan, a pulse-pounding tale of redemption and survival, today! As with all works by Mark Goodwin, this book contains no profanity and no embarrassing sex scenes. However, if you're offended by conservative principles and references to Scripture, this book might not be for you.

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📒 The Fate Of The Black Swan by Frank Frankfort Moore

Genre :
Publisher :
ISBN_10 : OXFORD:590693829
Copyright Year : 1897
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Genre : Business & Economics
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN_10 : 9783656319740
Copyright Year : 2012-11-26
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Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: excellent, Corvinus University Budapest (School of Management), language: English, abstract: The paper is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a popular point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. Based on his work, the paper first defines the concept of the ‘Black Swan’ as an extremely unlikely high impact event, which is evidently unpredictable ex ante; however, is regarded as potentially avoidable by most observers ex post facto. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevantly many events that makes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, in its second part the paper focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. Relying on Gaussian Bell Curve type normal distributions in order to predict future supply and demand, these models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. Using historic data and experiences in order to review to what extent the ‘Black Swan’ influenced the development of the energy world in the past, the paper questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. In order to apply the necessary methodological rigor, ‘Black Swans’ and their impact are measured according to predefined criteria and indicators, elaborated in the first part of the paper. These indicators are mainly qualitative, however, as an empirical anchor the paper uses the historical development of the oil price, focusing on peaks and lows. The most striking historical cases of sudden price rise or decline are examined in detail in order to find commonalities and differences. Finally, based on the findings of this historical analysis, the paper raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, looking for methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.

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